San Diego Sabers’ Race to the 2024-2025 USPHL Pacific Division Playoffs

As of January 22, 2025, the San Diego Sabers find themselves trailing and fighting hard to secure a place in the playoffs as they are currently in fifth place of the USPHL Pacific Division standings with 36 points and a season record of 18-14-0-0. Out of their 18 wins,one of their wins consisted of a shootout win.  

The San Diego Sabers find themselves struggling on the power play as they currently have a 17.19% success rate. However, they do have a solid penalty killing success rate which is currently 79.67%. Their top scorers are #6 Knut Hornkvist who has 71 points and #11 Liam Krupcyznski who has 69 points recorded in the regular season. Liam Krupcyznski leads the San Diego Sabers in hat-tricks recorded during the regular season as he has secured 4 hat-tricks in this season so far. 

In regards to goaltending, three out of four total goaltenders have been very active during this season. The three active goaltenders’ stats which include: Viktor Pasztor securing 8 wins out of 15 games and a 0.900 SV%; Parker Lewis securing 4 wins out of 10 games and a 0.896 SV%; and Mikhail Saratovtsev securing 5 wins in 11 games he played and 0.896 SV%. Ryan Doninger has had a chance to play during the Las Vegas Showcase, however, he did not face any shots on goal. 

Looking at what is left of the regular season, the San Diego Sabers have 14 games left in the regular season which consists of: 

• A two-game series against the Ventura Vikings (7th place, 23 PTS, 10-22-2-1) on January 24, 2025 and the Long Beach Bombers (8th place, 18 PTS, 8-23-2-0) on January 25, 2025.

  • Previous meetings this season: 

    • SDS have won all four games against VNV (4-0)

    • SDS have won four out of 5 games against LBB (4-1)

  • Prediction: 

    • SDS will likely sweep VNV as they have in previous games when they not only outshot VNV (146 SOG vs 127), outscored (24 G vs. 14 G), and maintained control over the game with their successful penalty kill (100% ). 

    • SDS will likely sweep LBB as they have outshot LBB (128 SOG vs. 118 SOG) and have found more success on their power play attempts (36.8% PP vs. 12.5% PP). This game may come down to who can capitalize on the power play and goaltending. 

• A two-game series against the Bakersfield Roughnecks (6th place, 29 PTS, 13-18-1-2) on January 31- February 1, 2025 

  • Previous meetings this season: SDS have won two out of three games against BKR (3-0)

  • Prediction: SDS may sweep this two-game series against BKR as they have in the past despite BKR outshooting SDS (148 SOG vs 118 SOG). SDS have a slightly higher power play success rate (20% PP vs 16.7% PP) and have outscored BKR 16 G vs. 12 G. It may come down to whoever is able to take advantage of their power play opportunities and goaltending.

• A two-game series against the Bakersfield Roughnecks (6th place, 29 PTS, 13-18-1-2) on February 7, 2025 and the Fresno Monsters (3rd place, 46 PTS, 23-8-0-0) on February 9, 2025.

  •  Previous meetings this season: 

    • SDS have won two out of three games against BKR (3-0)

    • FRM has won four out of five games against SDS (4-1)

  • Prediction: 

    • SDS may sweep this two-game series against BKR as they have in the past despite BKR outshooting SDS (148 SOG vs 118 SOG). SDS have a slightly higher power play success rate (20% PP vs 16.7% PP) and have outscored BKR 16 G vs. 12 G. It may come down to whoever is able to take advantage of their power play opportunities and goaltending. 

    • FRM will most likely sweep SDS as they have controlled most of their previous games (187 SOG vs 141 SOG) and a strong penalty kill (100%) in all five games. FRM may also find success in this game with stellar goaltending. 

• A three-game series against Lake Tahoe Lakers (1st place, 53 PTS, 26-10-1-0) on February 14-16, 2025

  • Previous meetings this season: LTL and SDS are evenly split against one another (1-1)

  • Prediction: In previous games, although LTL has had more shots on goal (103 SOG vs 62 SOG), the team did find difficulty in securing the win in Game 1 against SDS despite having control of the puck for the majority of the game. Both teams have struggled on their power play opportunities when playing against one another due to their strong penalty killing. Overall, it may come down to goaltending, penalty killing, and who can capitalize while having puck possession throughout the game. 

• A two-game series against Ontario Jr. Reign (2nd place, 47 PTS, 23-9-1-0) on February 21, 2025 and the Ventura Vikings (7th place, 23 PTS, 10-22-2-1) on February 22, 2025. 

  • Previous meetings this season: 

    • OJR has won three out of five games against SDS (3-2)

    • SDS have won all four games against VNV (4-0)

  • Prediction: 

    • The game against OJR will come down to goaltending and who can capitalize while having puck possession. For example, despite SDS having more scoring chances than OJR (204 SOG vs 120 SOG), SDS struggled to secure a couple wins when facing OJR. The times SDS did win, the SOG were very close to one another, hence why it may come down to goaltending and puck possession in future games between the two teams.

    • SDS will likely sweep VNV as they have in previous games when they not only outshot VNV (146 SOG vs 127), outscored (24 G vs. 14 G), and maintained control over the game with their successful penalty kill (100% ). 

• A three-game series consisting of one game against the Colorado Fighting Elk (6th place, 13 PTS, 6-19-1-0) on February 28, 2025 and against Henderson Force (4th place, 45 PTS, 22-10-0-1) on March 1-2, 2025.

  • Previous meetings this season: 

    • SDS and ELK have not faced one another

    • HNF has won three out of four games against SDS (3-1)

  • Prediction: 

    • SDS may sweep ELK based on season record however, in regards to their power play/penalty killing success rates, they are very similar to one another. ELK currently has a 13.71% PP success rate and 77.78 PK success rate. These are slightly lower compared to SDS’s 17.19% PP success rate and 79.67% PK success rate. This game will come down to goaltending and whoever can capitalize on their scoring chances. 

    • In regards to the stats between the two teams, they are relatively similar to one another with HNF at a slight advantage in SOG (146 SOG 144 SOG) and overall goals scored against SDS (18 G vs. 14 G). SDS does have an advantage on the power play compared to HNF as SDS has a 45.5% PP success rate compared to HNF’s 38.5% PP success rate in the four total games played against one another. Overall, it is likely that HNF may sweep SDS, however, it will come down to the power play and who will capitalize while having puck possession throughout the game. 

As acknowledged in Summary of the Race to the Playoffs, the San Diego Sabers (36 PTS) do have a better shot at attempting to make the playoffs if they can sweep the rest of regular season as their odds are more in their favor compared to the rest of the division who trails behind them. They will have an uphill battle to climb to possibly overtake Henderson Force’s 4th place (45 PTS) if they can take full advantage of their future games ahead of them. This overall makes the Sabers a team to look out for as they are not completely out of the race but it will come down to if the odds are actually in their favor instead of those who are above them in the standings.